Bayer 04 Leverkusen hosts FC St. Pauli at BayArena in a Bundesliga clash that pits a mid-table side against a team fighting relegation. Leverkusen sits sixth with 36 points from 20 games, three points behind fourth place, while St. Pauli lingers in 17th with 17 points after 21 matches. As favorites, Leverkusen aims to narrow the gap to European spots, but St. Pauli seeks momentum to climb out of danger.
Leverkusen drew 1-1 away at Borussia Mönchengladbach on February 7, ending a four-game winning streak across competitions. Before that, they beat FC St. Pauli 3-0 at home in the DFB-Pokal on February 3. Earlier results included a 3-1 away win over Eintracht Frankfurt on January 31, a 3-0 home victory against Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League on January 28, and a 1-0 home success versus SV Werder Bremen on January 24. The recent derby against Gladbach featured an early concession followed by an equalizer before halftime in a physical encounter.
St. Pauli earned a 2-1 home win over VfB Stuttgart on February 7, securing three points after six league games without victory. Prior to that, they lost 3-0 away to Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal on February 3. Other outcomes showed a 2-1 away defeat to FC Augsburg on January 31, a 1-1 home draw with RB Leipzig on January 27, and a 0-0 home stalemate against Hamburger SV on January 23. The Stuttgart match delivered a deserved result despite late pressure, boosting survival chances.
Leverkusen holds a strong edge in head-to-head encounters, winning six of the last 11 meetings with four draws and one loss. In their most recent Bundesliga matchup on September 27, 2025, Leverkusen triumphed 2-1 away. They followed up with a 3-0 home win in the DFB-Pokal quarterfinal on February 3, 2026. Overall, these games averaged 2.73 goals, with nine of 11 exceeding 1.5 goals.
My prediction is Home Win & Over 1.5 at 1.72. Leverkusen boasts 11 wins from 20 league outings compared to St. Pauli's four from 21. Their home record shows six victories in 10 matches, scoring 20 goals. St. Pauli concedes 1.67 goals per game away, facing a side that nets 1.95 overall. The head-to-head trend favors goals, with nine of 11 clashes over 1.5. The xG projection (2.23–0.75) supports a 2-1 finish.
