Celtic host Livingston at Celtic Park on Wednesday 11 February in the Scottish Premiership, with the hosts third on 48 points (15 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats) and the visitors 12th on 11 points (1 win, 8 draws, 16 defeats). Martin O’Neill’s side are clear favourites at home against a Livingston team managed by David Martindale that has only one league win all season and the worst defensive record in the division (52 goals conceded). A home win would keep Celtic in the title race; Livingston are fighting to stay off the bottom.
Celtic’s last five games mix league, cup and Europe. They were held 1–1 at home by Dundee in the Scottish Cup on 7 February and needed a stoppage-time equaliser to force extra time before going through 2–1. Before that they beat Falkirk 2–0 at home in the league, won 4–2 at home to Utrecht in the Europa League, drew 2–2 at Hearts and 2–2 at Bologna. Their last defeat was a 3–1 home loss to Rangers in the Premiership on 3 January; since then they have lost only once in all competitions and have been scoring freely at home.
Livingston have taken one point from their last three league games. On 4 February they lost 1–2 at home to Falkirk, then lost 0–2 at home to Motherwell on 31 January and were beaten 6–2 at Aberdeen on 24 January; earlier they drew 1–1 at home to St Mirren and 1–1 at home to Kilmarnock. Their only league win this season was 3–1 at home to Falkirk on 9 August; they have not won in the Premiership since then and have conceded 25 goals in their last 10 league matches.
In the head-to-head this season Celtic have won both meetings: 3–0 at Celtic Park in August and 4–2 at Livingston in late December. Over the last decade in the league Celtic have won 28 of the 37 meetings, with two Livingston wins and seven draws, so the fixture has heavily favoured the hosts.
My prediction is Celtic to win and over 2.5 goals at 1.47. Celtic have scored at least two goals in seven of their last eight home league games, while Livingston have conceded two or more in 18 of their 25 league matches this season. The xG projection (2.89–0.65) supports a 3–1 finish.
