Chaves B come into this one with four wins, one draw and one loss from their last six league matches, and the home picture is solid enough for a side sitting eighth overall. Their home record of five wins, one draw and five defeats is not dominant, but it does show they are capable of turning matches their way in front of their own crowd. The 4-1 away win at Desportivo de Monção on 22 March also underlined that they can produce when the game opens up.
AD Os Limianos arrive in better league position, yet their away form is less convincing than their table standing suggests. They have four wins, four draws and three defeats on the road, with only ten away goals scored and fourteen conceded. That kind of split leaves room for Chaves B to believe they can edge it, especially with the visitors having taken only one point from their last away league match at Bragança before beating Ribeira Brava at home.
Goals have not been a problem in this fixture recently, with the sides drawing 2-2 in December and both previous meetings at Chaves B also finishing level. Chaves B have also seen both teams score in four of their last five league matches, while AD Os Limianos have both scored and conceded in five of their last seven. That keeps the draw or a narrow home win very much live, though it also means Chaves B may need to outscore rather than simply control the match.
The score projection is balanced too, with Chaves B at 1.3 xG and AD Os Limianos at 1.2, which points to a close contest rather than a comfortable favourite. Even so, Chaves B have won their last match, are unbeaten in one, and have scored seven goals across their last two league outings. Against an away side with a modest road return and no clean sheet in the last three head-to-heads against Chaves B, the home side have enough to justify the angle.
My prediction is Home Win at 7/5. Chaves B have taken four wins from their last six league matches and have a respectable home record of five wins, one draw and five defeats. AD Os Limianos have been decent away, but their road return of ten goals scored in eleven trips is not especially imposing. The recent head-to-heads at this ground have also gone Chaves B’s way in the sense that AD Os Limianos have not kept a clean sheet in the last three meetings, which leaves the hosts with a real chance to nick it.
