Crystal Palace sit 13th on 32 points and host 19th‑placed Burnley, who have 15 points and are eight points from safety. Oliver Glasner’s side are clear favourites at Selhurst Park on Wednesday evening, with the model pricing a home win at 57/100 (1.57). Burnley, under Scott Parker, are in a relegation battle and have not won in the league since August 2025.
Palace ended a long winless run with a 0–1 away win at Brighton on 8 February. Brighton had 63% possession but only two shots on target; Palace had four from seven attempts and scored in the second half. Before that, Palace drew 1–1 at Nottingham Forest and lost 1–3 at home to Chelsea. They had also lost at Sunderland and exited the FA Cup at Macclesfield. The Brighton result was their first league win since before that poor run and gives them a platform for this midweek fixture.
Burnley lost 0–2 at home to West Ham on 7 February and were booed off at full-time. West Ham scored in the 13th and 26th minutes and the defeat extended Burnley’s winless run in the Premier League to 16 games. They had lost 0–3 at Sunderland three days earlier and had drawn 2–2 at home to Tottenham and 1–1 at Liverpool in January. Their last league win was in August 2025, 2–0 at home to Sunderland in the Premier League.
In the reverse fixture in December 2025, Crystal Palace won 0–1 at Turf Moor. In the last 10 Premier League meetings between the two, the side that scored first went on to win. Across 56 meetings in all competitions, Burnley have 21 wins, Palace 16, and there have been 19 draws.
My prediction is Crystal Palace to win at 1.57. Palace average 1.80 xG in the model and have kept the gap to the bottom six with 32 points, while Burnley have one league win since August 2025 and have lost 16 of 25 league games. The xG projection (1.80–1.03) supports a 2–1 finish.
