Bayern host RB Leipzig in the DFB Pokal on Wednesday 11 February at the Allianz Arena, with the tie coming only a few weeks after the sides met in the league. Bayern lead the Bundesliga and are clear favourites at home, while Leipzig are chasing cup progress under their new coach. A place in the next round is at stake for both.
Bayern responded to their first league defeat in a long time by thrashing Hoffenheim 5–1 at home on 8 February. The visitors had a man sent off in the first half and Bayern controlled the game, racking up a big shot count and a comfortable win. Before that, they had drawn at Hamburger SV and won away at PSV in the Champions League. Their only loss in the last five was 1–2 at home to Augsburg on 24 January, which ended a long unbeaten run in the league. They had already beaten Union Saint-Gilloise at home in Europe, so their overall form remains strong despite that slip.
Leipzig come into the cup on the back of a 2–1 win at Köln on 8 February, with more of the ball and more attempts, though they had to see off a fightback from the hosts. Prior to that they lost 1–2 at home to Mainz, were held 1–1 at St. Pauli, won 0–3 at Heidenheim, and lost 1–5 at home to Bayern on 17 January. That heavy defeat to Bayern is their most recent meeting with Wednesday’s opponents and will be fresh in the memory.
In head-to-head terms, Bayern have had the upper hand. They won 5–1 in Leipzig in the Bundesliga in mid-January and had already beaten Leipzig 5–1 at the Allianz Arena in the league last season. Recent meetings have tended to produce goals and clear Bayern wins, which sets the scene for this cup clash.
My prediction is Home Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.15. Bayern are averaging over three expected goals in the model for this fixture and have scored five in each of the last two meetings, while Leipzig have scored in four of their last five and are projected around 1.26 xG here. The xG projection (3.34–1.26) supports a 3–1 finish.
