Under 2.5 goals has a solid recent case from the hosts alone. Dobrudzha have seen five of their last seven league games finish below that line, and all three of their wins across the last six came in low-scoring matches: 1-0 against Beroe, 2-1 against Cherno More and 1-0 against Montana. Even in defeat they have often stayed in tighter games rather than turning matches into shootouts.
Levski come in top of the table, but three of their last five league matches have also stayed under 2.5 goals, including 1-0 wins over Beroe and Lokomotiv Plovdiv and the 0-1 loss away to Ludogorets. Their away record is strong at 9 wins from 13, yet the goals against figure of 10 in those 13 away league games points to a team that usually keeps matches controlled on the road. That supports a lower total more than it points to a wide-open contest.
The xG projection is modest at 0.9 for Dobrudzha and 1.0 for Levski, which aligns well with a game played around one or two total goals. Dobrudzha’s most recent match, the 0-2 defeat at CSKA Sofia on 22 March, was especially quiet in chance quality with only 0.3 xG for and 0.4 xGA, plus no big chances for either side. That sort of shot profile leans toward another restrained game.
There is a small warning sign because Levski’s last outing ended 2-1 against Cherno More, and they also had a 4-3 game against Lokomotiv Sofia earlier this month. Still, those look more like exceptions than the baseline, and the earlier league meeting between these sides finished 3-0 to Levski in October, so the under does carry some risk if the visitors dominate early. The projected 0-1 score keeps the stronger case on the side of a low total rather than a high one.
My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 1.70. Dobrudzha have gone under this line in five of their last seven league matches, Levski have had three of their last five league games finish with two goals or fewer, Levski’s away league record includes only 10 goals conceded in 13 matches, and the xG projection of 0.9 to 1.0 points toward a narrow result rather than a game with three or more goals.
