Glenavon come into this derby after taking three wins and three losses from their last six, but the home picture is steadier enough to trust them for the result. At Mourneview Park they have six wins and ten defeats, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded, which is not flawless but does point to a side that can still do enough in front of their own crowd.
Portadown’s away record is weaker for a home-result angle, with just four wins, one draw and 11 losses on the road. They have also gone five league matches without a win, and their last away trips brought a 3-1 defeat at Linfield and a 1-1 draw at Ballymena United, so they have not been travelling with much conviction.
The recent head-to-head also leans Glenavon’s way at this venue. They beat Portadown 3-0 on 28 February, and that came after Portadown had already been beaten 1-0 at Glenavon on Boxing Day. Glenavon’s 3-0 win in that latest meeting was clear enough to suggest the matchup can suit the hosts, even if the 1-0 defeat in December shows there is still some tension in the fixture.
There is a small scoring concern because Portadown kept Crusaders out in a 0-0 draw on 21 March and Glenavon were held to one shot on target before losing 3-0 to Larne. Even so, Glenavon’s xG of 1.5 compared with Portadown’s 1.1, plus Portadown’s poor away return, still leaves the home side with the stronger case for the result.
My prediction is Home Win at 5/4. Glenavon have the better home record, Portadown have gone five league games without a win, and the recent 3-0 head-to-head at Glenavon is a strong marker for the hosts. Portadown’s away record of four wins from 16 also leaves little margin for them to be backed to leave with the points.
