Liverpool welcome Qarabağ FK to Anfield on Wednesday evening, January 28, 2026, with both sides already assured of progression in the Champions League but seeking to improve their seeding. The defending Premier League champions sit sixth in the domestic table with 36 points from 23 matches but have secured their place in the knockout rounds after winning five of their seven European fixtures. The Azerbaijani champions have defied expectations by claiming 10 points and securing a playoff berth, though their away form in Europe remains a concern.
Arne Slot's Liverpool have endured a turbulent campaign domestically, dropping points in four consecutive Premier League matches during January. On Saturday, they suffered a damaging 3-2 defeat at Bournemouth despite fighting back from 2-0 down through goals from Virgil van Dijk and Dominik Szoboszlai. That result extended their winless league run to five games, including draws against Leeds, Burnley, and Fulham, alongside a goalless stalemate at Arsenal on January 8. Florian Wirtz has provided the few bright spots, contributing six goals and assists in his last seven appearances, while defensive lapses have plagued the Reds throughout the month. Liverpool's Champions League form offers more encouragement, with their most recent outing producing a comprehensive 3-0 victory at Marseille on January 21, sealed by Szoboszlai's clever free kick and Jeremie Frimpong's deflected effort.
Gurban Gurbanov's Qarabağ have crafted a memorable Champions League campaign, highlighted by their dramatic 3-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday. Camilo Durán scored twice and Bahlul Mustafazade netted a stoppage-time winner to secure the result that confirmed their playoff qualification. The triumph followed impressive earlier wins over Benfica in Lisbon and Copenhagen at home, establishing Qarabağ as formidable opponents on their own turf. However, their away record tells a different story, with the Azerbaijani side yet to claim a point on their travels in Europe this season. Domestically, they suffered a 2-0 defeat to FK Kapaz on January 24 but remain second in the Azerbaijan Premier League, trailing leaders Sabah by three points.
The teams have never met in competitive action, making this a historic first encounter between the clubs. Liverpool's European pedigree dwarfs that of their opponents, though Qarabağ's recent upset victories over established sides demonstrate they cannot be dismissed lightly. This final league phase fixture carries limited consequences for either team beyond seeding positions, potentially prompting rotation from both managers.
My model backs Liverpool to win with fewer than 4.5 total goals at 57/100 (1.57 decimal), giving this outcome a 40.61% probability. I predict a 3-1 correct score, with expected goals projecting Liverpool to generate 2.77 compared to Qarabağ's 1.17. Qarabağ have conceded in their last seven consecutive matches, including all four European away fixtures this season.
