Manchester City welcome bottom-placed Wolverhampton to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday afternoon, January 24, 2026, with Pep Guardiola's side looking to maintain their title challenge. City sit second with 43 points from 22 matches, seven points behind leaders Arsenal, while Rob Edwards' Wolves remain rooted to the table's foot with just eight points. The gulf between these sides couldn't be starker, but Wolves arrive unbeaten in four league matches as they fight for survival.
City suffered a humiliating 3-1 Champions League defeat at Bodø/Glimt on Tuesday, with Kasper Høgh's first-half brace and Jens Hauge's stunner putting them 3-0 down before Rayan Cherki replied. Rodri's red card after picking up two yellows in 53 seconds compounded the misery in Norway. Before that shock, City lost 2-0 in the derby at Manchester United on January 17, then beat Newcastle 2-0 in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg on January 13. Antoine Semenyo scored his second goal in two games after his £62.5m January move from Bournemouth, with Cherki adding another. Earlier, City demolished Exeter 10-1 in the FA Cup on January 10, with Semenyo scoring on debut. Erling Haaland remains the focal point despite recent struggles, supported by Reijnders and Cherki.
Wolves earned a gritty 0-0 draw at home to Newcastle on Sunday to extend their unbeaten run to four matches. Edwards' side secured their first win of the season by beating West Ham 3-0 on January 3, with goals from Jhon Arias, Hwang Hee-Chan and Mateus Mané ending a winless streak. They also held Everton to a 1-1 draw on January 7 after Mané's equalizer, and thrashed Shrewsbury 6-1 in the FA Cup on January 11. José Sá has been pivotal in goal during this improved run, while Mané and Hwang provide attacking threat. Despite the upturn, Wolves remain 14 points from safety with enormous work ahead.
Guardiola admitted after the Bodø/Glimt defeat that "it feels like everything is going wrong" for City during their current struggles. Edwards celebrated his first win as Wolves boss against West Ham, stating his side had been "improving and progressing" and the victory was "another step in the right direction."
Manchester City have dominated this fixture historically, winning 17 of 26 Premier League meetings since 2003, with Wolves claiming just five victories. City opened the 2025-26 season with a statement 4-0 thrashing of Wolves at Molineux on August 16, as Haaland scored twice alongside debut goals from Reijnders and Cherki. Last season, City edged a 1-0 home win in May thanks to Kevin De Bruyne's strike.
I predict Wolverhampton +1.5 Asian Handicap at 6/5 odds (2.20 decimal), with a 71.75% probability for this outcome. My model projects a 2-1 scoreline with expected goals of 1.63 for Manchester City and 0.98 for Wolves. Wolves have found the net in three of their last four matches, suggesting they can avoid the heavy defeat many expect.
