NK Slaven Belupo come into this one unbeaten in four league games, but that sequence has been built on draws rather than control, with two 0-0 or 1-1 type results among their last three home fixtures. HNK Rijeka, meanwhile, arrive after four matches without a win and a heavy 4-0 defeat at HNK Gorica on 22 March, so they have not been offering much security on the road. That blend of Slaven’s reluctance to lose at home and Rijeka’s recent dip is exactly the sort of profile that supports a double chance on the hosts.
Slaven’s home record in the league is solid enough, with seven wins, three draws and only three defeats, and they have conceded just 15 goals in 13 home matches. Rijeka’s away numbers are less convincing, with only three away wins and six defeats, while their own league total of 31 goals against is much better than their travel record suggests. The earlier meeting at Rijeka finished 2-2 in January, but the wider pattern still leans toward Slaven being difficult to beat on their own ground.
The recent scoring trends are not especially explosive either. Slaven’s last six matches have produced only one win and several low-margin outcomes, while Rijeka have failed to score in two of their last three league games and were held to one goal by Strasbourg in Europe. The projected 1-1 scoreline does leave room for a draw, but the home side’s steadier home record and Rijeka’s four-match winless spell keep the 1X angle in play.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X at 53/100. Slaven are unbeaten in four league matches and have lost only three times at home all season, while Rijeka have gone four games without a win and have just three away victories in the league. Rijeka’s last away league trip ended in a 4-0 defeat, and the January head-to-head finished level, which fits a home-or-draw outcome better than a straight away result.
This looks more like a tight contest than a clear away push, and the home split is the key factor. Slaven’s 7-3-3 record at home gives them a strong floor, while Rijeka’s away return of 3-4-6 does not inspire much confidence. Even if the match lands around a draw, the 1X cover still protects that outcome.
