Nottingham Forest host Wolverhampton at the City Ground on Wednesday 11 February in a relegation scrap that pits 17th against 20th. Forest sit on 26 points with seven wins, five draws and 13 defeats, while Wolves are rooted to the bottom on eight points from a single league win, five draws and 19 losses. The hosts are clear favourites at home against a side that has won only once in the league all season and has lost the last two. A home result would strengthen Forest’s buffer above the drop; for Wolves, any return is critical to keep survival hopes alive.
Forest’s form has been mixed. They lost 3–1 at Leeds on 6 February after going two down in the first half and conceding a third early in the second before a late reply. Before that they drew 1–1 at home to Crystal Palace and beat Ferencváros 4–0 in the Europa League. In the league they had won 2–0 at Brentford and lost 1–0 at Braga in Europe, so they have been capable of results at both ends of the table.
Wolves are in a deep rut. They lost 1–3 at home to Chelsea on 7 February, shipping three goals in the first 38 minutes, including two penalties, and scoring once in the second half. That followed a 0–2 home defeat by Bournemouth and a 0–2 loss at Manchester City. Their only Premier League win this term was on 3 January, 3–0 at home to West Ham, with all three goals in the first half; they have not won in the league in over five weeks and remain last with 16 goals scored and 48 conceded.
In head-to-heads, Forest have had the upper hand lately. The last meeting was at Molineux on 3 December 2025, when Forest won 1–0. Forest are unbeaten in the last seven league games against Wolves, with three wins and four draws; Wolves’ last victory in this fixture was in October 2022. The historical series favours Wolves over a long span, but recent form between the two points to the hosts.
The value pick in the market is backing Forest not to lose and a low-scoring game. A double chance on the host (1X) combined with under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.57 (57/100), and a model estimate puts the probability of that double outcome at about 55.62%. Expected goals lean toward a tight, low-scoring match: Forest are projected at 1.48 and Wolves at 1.04, which fits a 2–1 type scoreline rather than a shootout.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X and Under 3.5 goals at 1.57. Forest have scored 25 in 25 league games and Wolves 16, while Wolves have conceded 48 and have one league win all season, which supports a cautious, low-scoring profile. Forest’s xG at home (1.48) and Wolves’ away (1.04) point to a game with few clear chances. The xG projection (1.48–1.04) supports a 2–1 finish.
