NŠ Mura come into this after a mixed six-match spell, with two wins and four losses, but their home work has been steadier than their overall league position suggests. They have taken five wins, four draws and only three defeats at home in PrvaLiga, and the recent 2-0 win over Kalcer Radomlje was a useful response after conceding heavily at NK Maribor and NK Celje. Even so, their back line still looks vulnerable enough to give Olimpija chances.
NK Olimpija Ljubljana’s away numbers are the stronger pointer here, with six wins, three draws and three losses on the road and 19 goals scored in those away games. Their recent league run has also included a win at Kalcer Radomlje and a draw with NK Maribor, which keeps the away side’s profile intact despite the 1-2 home defeat to NK Bravo on 21 March. With 42 points to Mura’s 24, they arrive with the better season-long record.
The head-to-head also leans the same way, because Olimpija have won three of the last four league meetings and have not lost any of the last seven against Mura. That matters for an away-win call, though the pattern is not completely one-sided in goals terms since Mura have managed to score in some recent home matches and the 1-2 scoreline is more realistic than a comfortable shutout. Still, Olimpija’s away record and their historical edge in this fixture give them the cleaner case.
A league context check supports that view too: Olimpija’s 1.6 expected goals projection sits above Mura’s 1.1, and their away attack is better than the home benchmark for the division. Mura can make this awkward if they keep it tight at home, but their 44 goals conceded in the league leaves them exposed against a side with a stronger away return and more consistent results on the road.
My prediction is Away Win at 17/20. Olimpija Ljubljana have the better away record, they are ahead in the table, and they have dominated the recent head-to-head with three wins from the last four league meetings. Mura’s home form is respectable, so this is not a banker, but Olimpija’s six away wins and stronger season profile still point to the visitors.
