Olympiacos host Bayer Leverkusen at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium on Wednesday evening in the Champions League knockout stage play-offs. The Greek champions sit 18th in the league phase standings with 11 points, while Leverkusen finished 16th on 12 points after an inconsistent European campaign. José Luis Mendilibar's side holds a slim advantage from the first leg, having beaten the Germans 2-0 in Piraeus during the league phase in January. That result makes Olympiacos slight favourites to progress, though both teams have work to do to secure their place in the last 16.
Olympiacos enter this fixture in unconvincing domestic form, having won just once in their last four Super League matches. The defending Greek champions were held to a frustrating 0-0 draw at Levadiakos last Friday, failing to convert despite hitting the post in the 74th minute and facing 10 men for almost 50 minutes after the hosts received a red card. That result followed a 1-0 home defeat to Panathinaikos in the Athens derby and a 1-1 draw at AEK Athens. Their only recent bright spot came with a 3-0 away win at Asteras Aktor on February 4, but three winless league games in a row raises questions about their momentum heading into European knockout football.
Leverkusen arrive in Greece having rediscovered their scoring touch under Kasper Hjulmand. The Werkself hammered St. Pauli 4-0 at the BayArena on Saturday, bouncing back from a 1-1 draw at Borussia Mönchengladbach the previous week. That commanding home win lifted them to fourth in the Bundesliga, level on points with RB Leipzig. Earlier in the month, Hjulmand's side beat St. Pauli 3-0 in the DFB-Pokal quarter-finals to reach a third consecutive semi-final in that competition. A 3-1 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on January 31 and a 3-0 victory over Villarreal in their final Champions League league phase match demonstrate Leverkusen can be ruthless when firing on all cylinders.
These clubs have met three times in Champions League history, with Olympiacos winning two and Leverkusen claiming one. The most famous encounter came in September 2002, when Olympiacos thrashed Leverkusen 6-2 at Karaiskakis—a result that remains one of the most memorable European nights in the stadium's history. Leverkusen won the reverse fixture 2-0 that season, but their January 2026 loss in Piraeus means the Greeks have now won their last two home meetings. Overall, Olympiacos have scored eight goals to Leverkusen's four across these three encounters.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.70. Olympiacos have kept two clean sheets against Leverkusen in their last two home meetings, but the visitors' recent scoring form—11 goals in their last four wins—suggests they will find the net here. The Greeks' attacking threat at home remains real; they scored twice against Leverkusen in January and created enough chances against 10-man Levadiakos to suggest goals are in them. With both teams needing to manage their aggregate position, an open contest favours this selection at 59.4% probability. The xG projection (1.41–1.47) supports a 1-1 finish.
