Sambenedettese come into this with only one win in their last six league matches, and that run also includes four draws and a defeat. They have failed to score in four of those six, while their home return is especially thin: only two home wins all season and just 8 goals scored in 16 home league games. Against a table-topping away side, that lack of attacking output is a major problem for their chances of taking anything.
Arezzo arrive top of the section and have been excellent on the road, losing only once in 16 away league matches. They have scored 30 away goals and conceded just nine, so they have repeatedly done enough away from home without needing a high-scoring game. Their recent away wins at Bra and Campobasso also fit that pattern, even though the 1-2 home loss to Ascoli on 30 March was a reminder that they are not flawless.
The goal numbers point to Arezzo having the cleaner edge rather than a wild contest. Sambenedettese’s last six league games have produced very few goals, and their season-long home figures remain low at 8 scored and 17 conceded. The xG projection is also modest at 0.7 for Sambenedettese and 1.3 for Arezzo, which leaves some room for a tight scoreline, but it still leans toward the visitors finishing on top.
There is also a recent head-to-head note in Arezzo’s favour, with a 1-0 home win in November 2025. Sambenedettese’s current three-game winless spell adds to the sense that they are struggling to turn low-event matches into points, while Arezzo’s away record suggests they are far better placed to control this kind of fixture. Even if the margin is narrow, the away side carry the stronger results profile.
My prediction is Away Win at 13/20. Arezzo’s away record of 11 wins, four draws and one loss is the standout angle here, and their 30 away goals against just nine conceded show why they have been so reliable on the road. Sambenedettese have only two home wins all season, and their recent scoring return has been poor, so the visitors look the more dependable side even in a match that may stay fairly tight.
