San Martín de Tucumán come into Saturday evening unbeaten in nine league matches, with four draws and one win from their last five, and their recent home wins and draws have tended to keep games tight. They held Deportivo Madryn to 1-1 away on 29 March and drew 1-1 at San Martín de San Juan a week earlier, which fits the overall pattern of a side that is hard to beat even when they do not run away with matches.
Chacarita Juniors arrive in weaker shape, with four losses and one draw from their last five league outings and no clean sheet in their last ten. The 0-3 home defeat to Estudiantes de Buenos Aires on 29 March followed a 0-1 loss to Atlético de Rafaela, while even their away trips have not turned into consistent points, so their recent profile leaves little margin if they fall behind.
The goal numbers lean toward a cautious contest rather than an open one. San Martín’s last six have included only one two-goal margin and several narrow scorelines, while Chacarita have scored just three times across their last five league games. That sits neatly with the head-to-head trend of five of the last six meetings finishing under 2.5 goals, although the 1-1 projection suggests there is still a realistic chance of both sides nicking one.
San Martín’s unbeaten run is the key piece of support here, because Double Chance 1X only needs them to avoid defeat and they have done that in nine straight league matches. Chacarita’s four defeats in five, plus a run of ten without a clean sheet, make an away success harder to trust, and the recent 1-1 meetings between these clubs also point to San Martín having enough control to protect the home side of the market.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X at 17/100. San Martín are unbeaten in nine league matches, have drawn four of their last six, and just came through consecutive 1-1 games against Deportivo Madryn and San Martín de San Juan. Chacarita have lost four of their last five and have not kept a clean sheet in ten, so the safer angle is to back the home side not to lose even if the match stays close.
