Relegation-threatened FC Heidenheim host fourth-placed RB Leipzig at Voith-Arena on Saturday afternoon, January 24, 2026, in a Bundesliga clash that carries vastly different stakes for both teams. Frank Schmidt's Heidenheim sit 16th on 13 points from 18 matches and desperately need points to escape the drop zone, while Ole Werner's Leipzig remain in the Champions League qualification picture with 32 points from 17 matches. Leipzig enter as clear favorites having won six of their 11 all-time meetings, though Heidenheim will take some comfort from earning four draws in that head-to-head record.
Heidenheim's form has been alarming in recent weeks, with just one point from their last four league outings dropping them to the bottom of the Bundesliga table. They drew 1-1 with Wolfsburg on Saturday before losing 2-1 to Mainz on Tuesday. Those results followed a brief upturn when they beat Union Berlin 2-1 and Freiburg 2-1, but a 4-0 thrashing by Bayern on December 21 and a 2-1 loss at St. Pauli on December 13 illustrate the scale of their struggles. The hosts have managed only one home win from six attempts this season at Voith-Arena, scoring seven and conceding 13 in those fixtures. Goalkeeper Kevin Müller and defenders Patrick Mainka and Jonas Föhrenbach will need to be at their best against Leipzig's potent attack. Stefan Schimmer leads the scoring charts with five goals, while midfielders Jan Schoeppner and Leo Scienza have contributed three apiece.
Leipzig arrive in far better spirits despite a devastating 5-1 loss to Bayern on Friday in Ole Werner's first encounter with the reigning champions. Before that setback, they had beaten Freiburg 2-0 on Wednesday to steady the ship after consecutive defeats to Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in late December. Werner's side have been impressive overall this season, losing just five times and maintaining an excellent home record with seven wins from eight matches at Red Bull Arena. Their only home defeat came against Leverkusen. The visitors boast attacking firepower from Christoph Baumgartner, who has scored six Bundesliga goals, and Yan Diomande, who also has six along with four assists. Goalkeeper Peter Gulácsi anchors a defense that conceded five against Bayern but has otherwise been solid, with captain Willi Orbán marshaling the backline.
Leipzig's recent dominance in this fixture gives them a clear psychological edge. They won 2-0 at home against Heidenheim on August 30 in the teams' only meeting this season, extending their overall record to six wins, one loss, and four draws across all competitions since 2013. The visitors have scored 17 goals while conceding just nine in those 11 encounters, averaging 2.36 goals per match when these sides meet.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 57/100 (1.57 decimal) with a 63.66% win probability. I predict RB Leipzig 2-1 as the correct score with expected goals of 1.36 for Heidenheim and 1.84 for Leipzig. The notable gap in xG reflects Leipzig's superior attacking quality and ability to create better chances, though Heidenheim's tendency to score at Voith-Arena keeps both teams finding the net a likely outcome.
