AFC Ajax host Olympiacos FC at the Johan Cruijff Arena on Wednesday evening, January 28, 2026, in a UEFA Champions League encounter between two sides looking to solidify their European campaigns. Ajax sit 3rd in the Eredivisie with 37 points from 20 matches, while the Greek side occupy 3rd place in the Super League with 39 points from 16 games. Both teams arrive in decent form, though recent results paint contrasting pictures of their domestic and continental trajectories.
Ajax have shown flashes of quality in January but remain inconsistent. The Dutch giants thrashed Villarreal 2-1 in the Champions League on January 20 before beating FC Volendam 2-0 on Saturday to restore some domestic confidence. However, those performances came after a humiliating 6-0 KNVB Cup defeat to AZ Alkmaar on January 14 and a frustrating 2-2 draw with Go Ahead Eagles on January 17. Interim manager Fred Grim, in charge since November, will be without Steven Berghuis due to a groin injury. Davy Klaassen and Oscar Gloukh will shoulder the creative burden in midfield, while Martin Dolberg leads the attack.
Olympiacos arrive in Amsterdam with momentum after a strong run of continental results. José Luis Mendilibar's men defeated Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 on Wednesday and followed up with a 1-0 victory over Volos NPS on January 24. That domestic win steadied the ship after an earlier 2-0 loss to Atromitos Athens on January 10 exposed defensive fragilities. The visitors will be without goalkeeper Alexandros Paschalakis, with Konstantinos Tzolakis deputizing between the posts. Defender Lorenzo Pirola remains doubtful with a muscle injury, though he was expected back by January 19.
Ajax and Olympiacos share limited competitive history, having met just twice in the 1998/99 Champions League group stage. Ajax won 2-0 at home in that campaign, while Olympiacos claimed a 1-0 victory in Greece. The Dutch side also secured a 1-0 friendly win in July 2024, though little can be read into that result given the passage of time.
I predict Under 3.5 Goals at 1.50 decimal odds (50/100 fractional). My model gives this outcome a 60.53% probability of occurring, with a correct score prediction of 1-1. The expected goals projection favors Olympiacos at 1.89 xG compared to Ajax's 1.30 xG, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. Both teams have kept clean sheets in recent outings, with Olympiacos conceding just once across their last three matches. The narrow xG gap reinforces confidence in a match settled by minimal margins.
