Alhama come into this on a bleak run of six straight league defeats and 18 matches without a win, which is exactly the sort of profile that usually leaves them chasing the game rather than controlling it. They have also been fragile at the back all season, conceding 62 goals in 24 league matches, and their recent defeats have included 3-2 at FC Badalona and 1-2 at home to Club Atlético de Madrid, so even when they score they rarely protect the result.
Real Sociedad arrive much healthier, sitting third with 51 points and only three league defeats all season. Their recent sequence includes a win at Levante UD and a draw with DUX Logroño, and they have also won four of their last six in the league. That is the kind of away-side form that points toward them avoiding the sort of slip-up that would be needed to miss out here.
The head-to-head record also leans their way, with Real Sociedad unbeaten in the last three meetings and a 3-1 home win in November 2025. Alhama’s numbers make life harder for them too: they have been first to concede in seven of their last eight league matches, while Real Sociedad have scored first in five of their last six. That combination suits an away win more than a cautious double-chance angle.
There is a small wrinkle in the recent scoring trend because Alhama have been involved in five or more goals in some of their latest matches, while Real Sociedad have also shown enough attacking quality to create chances away from home, as reflected in the 2.1 xG projection. Even so, the balance still favours the visitors because Alhama’s defensive record is so poor and their inability to turn home fixtures into points has been constant all season.
My prediction is Away Win at 29/100. Real Sociedad have far better league form, they are coming in with four wins from their last six, and they have already beaten Alhama 3-1 in the recent head-to-head. Alhama’s 18-match winless run and habit of conceding first make it hard to trust them against a side sitting third with 15 league wins.
