Aston Villa host Newcastle United at Villa Park on Saturday evening for their FA Cup fourth-round clash, with Unai Emery's side entering as clear favourites. Villa sit third in the Premier League, just six points behind leaders Arsenal, while Eddie Howe's men languish in 12th amid growing pressure on the manager's position. The Villans have already beaten Newcastle twice this season, including a 2-0 victory at St James' Park less than three weeks ago.
Villa's recent domestic form has been steady if unspectacular, collecting seven points from their last four league matches. Their latest outing saw an 86th-minute own goal rescue a 1-0 win over Brighton, keeping them five points clear of fourth-placed Manchester United. Before that, a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth followed a frustrating home defeat to Brentford. The Europa League has offered respite, with Villa securing knockout qualification after edging past Red Bull Salzburg 3-2 at home.
Newcastle's season has unravelled in alarming fashion, with the Magpies winning just one of their last five matches across all competitions. That sole victory came at Tottenham on Monday, a 2-1 success that ended three consecutive league defeats. Prior to that, they were thrashed 4-1 at Liverpool, lost 3-1 at Manchester City in the EFL Cup semi-final, and fell 3-2 at home to Brentford. Howe delivered Newcastle's first major trophy in 70 years last season, but patience is wearing thin on Tyneside.
The teams have met 177 times in their history, with Newcastle holding the overall advantage with 76 wins to Villa's 61. Recent encounters have swung firmly in Villa's favour, however, as they remain unbeaten in the last three meetings. Villa's 4-1 home demolition in April 2025 and last month's 2-0 win at St James' Park marked dominant performances, with Newcastle struggling to find any response.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.57 odds. Villa have scored in 22 of 32 matches this season, while Newcastle have found the net in 15 of their last 17 away games. Four of the last six H2H meetings saw both sides score, and Newcastle's defensive fragility—conceding nine goals in their last four matches—makes a clean sheet unlikely. The xG projection (1.66–1.22) supports a 1-1 finish.
