AV Alta FC come into this one unbeaten in their first three league matches, but the wider picture is still five games without a win and three straight home draws in USL League One. Those home results have all been tight enough, with three goals scored and three conceded, so they have not been overrun at home. Even so, drawing twice from three at their own ground does not give them much cushion against a side with more momentum.
Union Omaha SC have won four of their last six in all competitions, including a 2-1 away success at Indy Eleven in the US Open Cup on 1 April. In league play they sit fifth with two wins from three, and they have also scored in four of those six recent games. The one caveat for an away win is that their league away record is still thin, with just one defeat and no away points yet, but that sample is small.
For this market, the key point is that Union Omaha have been the more reliable side in recent weeks, while AV Alta are still searching for their first league win. The hosts have been hard to beat at home, but that has produced draws rather than victories, and they have now gone five matches without a win. Union Omaha have also taken the lead in four of their last five and have already beaten AV Alta 2-0 in this fixture before.
There is a reasonable case for a close game, though, because AV Alta’s home matches and Union Omaha’s away league numbers have both leaned tight. The xG projection of 1.4 to 1.1 also points to a narrow margin rather than a comfortable away stroll, so the pick is not without some risk. Even so, the visitors carry the stronger recent win profile and the better league position.
My prediction is Away Win at 1/1. Union Omaha have won four of their last six, AV Alta have gone five without a win, and the hosts have drawn all three of their home league matches so far. Union Omaha also scored in four of those six recent games and beat AV Alta 2-0 in the most recent head-to-head.
