Benfica host Real Madrid at the Estádio da Luz on Tuesday in the first leg of their Champions League knockout playoff. The Portuguese side finished 24th in the league phase with nine points from eight matches, while Real Madrid claimed ninth spot with 15 points. José Mourinho's side arrive as underdogs against his former club but carry significant momentum after beating Los Blancos 4-2 in Lisbon just three weeks ago. Álvaro Arbeloa, who replaced Xabi Alonso in January and played under Mourinho at the Bernabéu from 2010 to 2013, now faces his former mentor in a critical European tie.
Benfica enter this fixture on a three-match winning streak in all competitions. Their most recent victory came away at Santa Clara, where they prevailed 2-1 despite conceding early in the second half. That followed a comfortable 2-1 home win against Alverca and a goalless draw at Tondela before the league phase concluded. The January showdown against Real Madrid was unforgettable—trailing 2-1 late on, Benfica scored three times in the final half-hour, with goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin heading home in the 98th minute to seal a dramatic 4-2 triumph that barely secured their playoff qualification.
Real Madrid have roared back in LaLiga since Arbeloa's appointment, winning eight consecutive league matches to climb to the top of the table. Their 4-1 demolition of Real Sociedad on Saturday ended the visitors' 11-match unbeaten run. That emphatic victory came without key players, yet the team dominated throughout. However, their January trip to Lisbon proved costly—two late red cards saw them reduced to nine men, allowing Benfica to complete a stunning comeback. That loss dropped Madrid from third to ninth in the Champions League standings and into this playoff round.
Benfica hold a commanding historical advantage over Real Madrid in European competition. The Portuguese club have won three of their four meetings, including their famous 5-3 victory in the 1962 European Cup final. More recently, they recorded that dramatic 4-2 win in January's league phase finale. Real Madrid's only triumph in this fixture came in the second leg of their 1965 quarter-final, though they still exited that tie 6-3 on aggregate.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.53. Both sides have scored in three of Benfica's last five home matches, while Real Madrid found the net in their previous visit despite the chaotic loss. Mourinho's men netted 10 times across five wins in the league phase at Da Luz before January's meeting. Madrid, meanwhile, scored 21 goals in eight Champions League matches this season. The xG projection (1.37–1.34) supports a 1-2 finish.
