Borussia Dortmund welcome Atalanta to Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday evening in the Champions League knockout stage, with both clubs looking to advance after underwhelming league phase campaigns. Dortmund finished 17th with 11 points while Atalanta placed 15th with 13, meaning neither side can feel comfortable despite playing on German soil. Niko Kovač's hosts enter as marginal favorites after surging up the Bundesliga table, sitting second and just three points behind leaders Bayern Munich with Der Klassiker looming later this month.
Dortmund have been transformed under Kovač, extending their Bundesliga unbeaten run to 15 matches following a dominant 4-0 demolition of Mainz on Friday. That victory marked their sixth consecutive league win, powered by a set-piece masterclass that produced three first-half goals. The hosts remain the only team in the division yet to lose at home this season, conceding just eight goals at the Westfalenstadion. Their lone blemish in the last five fixtures came at home in the Champions League, a 0-2 defeat to Inter that exposed lingering vulnerabilities in European competition.
Raffaele Palladino's Atalanta arrive on the back of a 2-0 triumph at Lazio, where a penalty and a brilliant curling strike sealed three points at the Olimpico. Since replacing the sacked Ivan Jurić in November, Palladino has steadied La Dea and guided them to a 3-0 Coppa Italia win over Juventus earlier this month. Their Champions League campaign hit a stumbling block with a 1-0 defeat at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise on matchday eight, their only loss in six matches across all competitions. Atalanta have scored just 10 goals in Europe this season but conceded the same, reflecting their pragmatic approach under new management.
These clubs last met in the 2017-18 Europa League round of 32, when Dortmund advanced 4-3 on aggregate after a pulsating two-legged affair. The German side won 3-2 at home before salvaging a 1-1 draw in Italy, and Atalanta have never beaten Dortmund in five meetings. Three of those five encounters ended level, with both teams finding the net in each fixture during that European tie eight years ago.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.57. Dortmund have conceded in four of their last eight Champions League matches while Atalanta reached the knockout rounds scoring in seven of eight league phase fixtures. The hosts boast firepower that has produced 12 goals in their last five domestic outings, yet defensive lapses against Inter showed gaps that Palladino's tactically organized side can exploit. The xG projection (1.62–1.36) supports a 1-1 finish.
