Third-placed Aston Villa host 12th-placed Everton at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon, January 18, 2026. The home side are heavy favorites after collecting 43 points from 21 games, while the Toffees sit nine points behind in mid-table with 29 points. Unai Emery's men will look to maintain their push for Champions League football, while David Moyes aims to steady his side after a rocky January.
Villa's recent form shows they are tough to beat but lack fluency in front of goal. They drew 0-0 away at Crystal Palace on Wednesday before dismantling Nottingham Forest 3-1 on January 3. Arsenal put four past them on December 30, but Emery's team bounced back with a 2-1 victory over the same opposition on December 6 and a dramatic 4-3 comeback win at Brighton on December 3. Injuries remain a concern as Emiliano Martínez faces a late fitness test on a calf issue, while Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley are ruled out. Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins have been the creative spark in recent weeks.
Everton have endured a difficult January under new boss David Moyes, who returned for a second spell on January 11. The Toffees drew 1-1 with Sunderland on Saturday before losing on penalties in the FA Cup, then shared another 1-1 draw with Wolves on January 7. A 4-2 defeat at home to Brentford on January 4 exposed defensive frailties, though they showed resilience with a 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest on December 30 and a disciplined 0-0 draw at Burnley on December 27. Moyes faces selection headaches with Seamus Coleman and Jarrad Branthwaite both carrying hamstring injuries. Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye remain away on international duty.
Villa have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 3-2 at home in September 2024. The sides drew in January 2024, but Villa won twice in 2023 including an EFL Cup triumph. Overall, Villa have won 22 of 54 Premier League meetings between the clubs, with Everton managing just 13 victories.
I predict Aston Villa to win at 2/3 (1.67 decimal odds), with my model giving them a 53.19% chance of victory. The projected scoreline is 2-1 to Villa, with expected goals reading 1.85 for the hosts and 1.12 for the visitors. Villa have found the net in each of their last four home fixtures against Everton. The xG gap of 0.73 demonstrates Villa's superior attacking platform and home advantage should prove decisive.
