Ceilândia arrive without a win in three, but their recent games have still leaned toward goals at both ends: they drew 1-1 with Jacuipense, 0-0 with Maracanã and 2-2 with Coritiba. That is a useful backdrop for an away-win angle, because Ceilândia have also gone seven matches without a clean sheet, so Mixto should at least find chances to decide it.
Mixto, though, are not arriving in great shape either. They lost 3-0 at home to Grêmio Novorizontino after a 1-1 draw with Botafogo-PB, and their most recent outing produced only 0.27 xG against 2.35 xGA. Even with the awkward detail that their form line shows just two games without a win, the defensive numbers from that defeat are hard to ignore.
The head-to-head record gives Mixto a small edge for this trip. They drew 1-1 at home with Ceilândia in May 2025, then Ceilândia won 2-1 in June 2025, so neither side has established clear control in the fixture. The broader scoring context is fairly modest too, with league away games averaging only 0.92 goals per match, which leaves room for a narrow visitor edge rather than a runaway result.
Ceilândia’s tendency to concede first in five of their last seven and the fact that they have not kept a clean sheet in seven straight matches strengthen the case for the visitors. Mixto have also seen five of their last six league-style results finish with fewer than 2.5 goals, so this does not need to be a wide-margin away performance; a controlled 1-2 away win is enough to fit the recent patterns, even if the xG gap is not huge.
My prediction is Away Win at 163/100. Ceilândia are still searching for their first win in this sample and have not kept a clean sheet in seven straight, while Mixto have already shown they can create enough to punish that sort of defensive fragility. Mixto’s 3-0 loss to Grêmio Novorizontino was ugly, but the head-to-head split and Ceilândia’s habit of conceding first point toward the visitors taking advantage.
