Estudiantes de Buenos Aires return home on Saturday evening needing a reaction, and their away win over Chacarita on 29 March gave them a lift after a rough spell. That result was unusual in context, though, because their league record still reads one win and five losses, with only three goals scored and eight conceded overall.
At home, the picture is even more cautious: two league games, no wins, no draws and no goals scored, with three conceded. Central Norte de Salta are not prolific either, but their away record of one win, one draw and two losses, plus only one goal scored on the road, points to a tight game rather than a free-flowing one.
Central Norte have also been involved in a run of low-scoring league matches, with seven straight staying under 2.5 goals, and their last three have produced no defeats. Estudiantes’ home matches have offered very little in attack, while the league’s home scoring average is only 1.1 goals per game, so there is not much in the numbers to suggest an open contest.
The only tension for a home-win call is that Central Norte have been stubborn enough to keep games close, including a 1-0 away win at Gimnasia y Tiro on 29 March and a narrow overall defensive record of three goals conceded. Even so, Estudiantes’ stronger recent away result, home-field advantage, and Central Norte’s limited away scoring leave the hosts with the clearer route to three points.
My prediction is Home Win at 39/50. Estudiantes have the better home edge in a match where Central Norte have scored just one away goal all season, and the visitors’ away record is still only one win in four. The hosts also arrive from a 3-0 away victory over Chacarita, while Central Norte’s recent wins have been by narrow margins in low-scoring games.
