Excelsior come into this one winless in six league matches, with five defeats and only a 1-1 draw at Heracles Almelo in that run. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in six straight, and their home record of four wins, two draws and eight defeats underlines why they are rarely able to control games for long at this level.
NEC Nijmegen arrive much higher up the table and their away numbers are strong: six wins, five draws and only three defeats on the road. They have taken points in four straight league matches, and their recent away win at PSV Eindhoven plus the 2-2 draw with SC Heerenveen both point to a side that keeps creating enough to score more than once.
The goal pattern in this fixture is hard to ignore. NEC have seen over 2.5 goals land in five straight league matches, while the head-to-head has produced three or more goals in nine of the last ten meetings. Excelsior have also been involved in open games at home, and their own recent results have regularly ended with both sides on the scoresheet.
That said, there is a small tension in the numbers because NEC’s recent 2-2 draw was tighter than some of their other high-scoring games, and Excelsior’s 1.6 xG projection is not tiny. Even so, with both teams projected around 1.6 xG and NEC carrying the better attacking form, the totals angle still looks stronger than trying to force a side or clean-sheet call.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 1/2. NEC have gone over this line in five straight league matches, the head-to-head has delivered over 2.5 goals in nine of the last ten, and Excelsior have not kept a clean sheet in six. With both sides projected at 1.6 xG and NEC’s away games often opening up, three goals looks the likelier outcome.
