Fatih Karagümrük come into this one with four points from their last three league matches, including a 2-0 home win over Fenerbahçe and a draw with Gaziantep FK, but they were also held to a goalless home draw by Samsunspor and then lost at Kayserispor. Their home record is still only three wins from 13, so they are not exactly a side that can be trusted to shut opponents out or control matches for long spells.
Çaykur Rizespor have been a bit steadier away from home in the league, with only four defeats in 13 trips and seven draws, which is a useful profile for a double chance call. They also arrive after narrow away losses to Trabzonspor and, in their previous league away game, a 3-0 win at Kasımpaşa, so they have shown they can stay competitive on the road even when results have been mixed.
The goal numbers point to a tight game rather than a clear edge either way. Fatih Karagümrük’s home league matches have produced 12 goals for and 19 against, while Rizespor’s away record sits level at 19 scored and 19 conceded. The xG projection of 1.3 to 1.2 also leans towards a close contest, and the 1-1 correct score fits that balance even if the recent league head-to-heads have sometimes ended with one side just edging it.
There is some tension for 1X in that Karagümrük are only 18th overall and have lost more than they have won, but their home draw rate and the narrow nature of their defeats help. Rizespor’s away form is respectable, yet seven draws from 13 league trips means they do not always turn those competitive performances into victories. The recent away loss at Kayserispor and the 0-0 against Samsunspor also suggest Karagümrük are capable of keeping this from becoming a clean away win.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X at 53/100. Karagümrük have taken points in four of their last six league games, while Rizespor have drawn seven of their 13 away league matches. The home side’s own record at this ground is not strong, but it does include three wins and three draws, which is enough to protect the double chance angle. The projected balance of 1.3 xG to 1.2 xG also points to a match where the visitors are unlikely to run away with it.
