FC Carl Zeiss Jena come into this cup tie without a win in four, and their recent home results have been mixed rather than solid. They drew 1-1 with RB Leipzig on 27 March and also shared the points with Hamburger SV, while the only clear home success in that spell was the 4-1 cup win over SC Sand. For an away-win angle, the bigger issue is that Jena have struggled to keep things tight, going without a clean sheet in ten straight games.
VfL Wolfsburg arrive with the stronger winning profile, even after their 1-0 defeat away to OL Lyonnes on 2 April. Before that setback, they had won four matches in a row, including the 2-0 home win over Jena in the league on 18 March and narrow victories over Hoffenheim and OL Lyonnes. That recent run still points to a side that usually finds a way through, especially against opponents they have already handled this month.
The head-to-head record also leans heavily in Wolfsburg’s favour. They have won the last four meetings, and they have not lost to Jena in 13 straight clashes. Jena have also failed to keep Wolfsburg out regularly, with the visitors scoring in all but one of the recent meetings, which is a useful base for an away result even if the scoreline is not always one-sided.
There is a small tension in the numbers because the projected 1.2 to 2.0 xG range is not extreme, so this is not a banker-type away win in terms of margin. Even so, Jena’s lack of clean sheets, Wolfsburg’s habit of scoring first in this fixture, and the visitors’ superior recent form all point in the same direction. The safer read is that Wolfsburg should have enough control to take the tie.
My prediction is Away Win at 1/6. Wolfsburg have won four of the last four meetings with Jena, they have not lost this head-to-head in 13 straight games, and Jena are without a clean sheet in ten consecutive matches. Wolfsburg also beat Jena 2-0 in the league on 18 March, which fits the visitors’ stronger recent level.
