FC Farul Constanța come into Sunday evening with enough home-side support for a win pick, having beaten FC Petrolul Ploiești 2-0 in their last home league game and then taken a point away to FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc. Their overall run is three wins, one draw and two defeats across the last six, which is not dominant, but it does show they have been harder to beat in the latest stretch. At home, the 2-0 win is the cleanest recent evidence for taking the points.
AFC Unirea 04 Slobozia have improved a little by beating SC Oțelul Galați 2-1, but that came after a sequence that included three straight defeats and they still look unreliable away from home. Their visit to FC Botoșani ended 3-2 in defeat, and earlier they were held 0-0 at FC Argeș Pitești, so the away profile is mixed rather than convincing. They have also struggled to keep control of games, which leaves them vulnerable if Farul can start well.
The head-to-head record does not fully rule out Unirea, because they beat Farul 2-1 in February and have avoided defeat in three straight meetings, but Farul have still found ways to score in these fixtures. The more useful angle for a home win is that Farul have been the more stable side at home recently, while Unirea’s recent away results include narrow losses and a blank at Argeș. Even so, the projected 2-1 scoreline hints at a competitive game rather than a comfortable one.
Farul’s recent numbers also lean their way at the venue, with home league averages of 1.43 xG and 1.35 goals per match compared with Unirea’s away figures of 1.17 xG and 1.07 goals. That gap is not huge, so this is not a runaway call, but it does support the idea that Farul can create slightly better chances and edge a tight contest. Unirea’s ability to score in defeat keeps the margin realistic, yet it still leaves the home side in the stronger position.
My prediction is Home Win at 4/5. Farul have already won their last home league match 2-0, Unirea’s away form has included a 3-2 loss and a goalless draw, and the xG edge at home also sits with Farul at 1.3 to 1.1. The recent head-to-heads have been tight, so the price reflects a game that should be competitive, but the home side still carry the better win case.
