Feyenoord host SK Sturm Graz at De Kuip on Thursday afternoon, January 22, 2026, with both sides desperately seeking Europa League playoff progress. Robin van Persie's Feyenoord sit 2nd in the Eredivisie with 36 points from 19 matches, while Fabio Ingolitsch has just taken charge of Sturm Graz, who occupy 3rd in the Austrian Bundesliga with 28 points from 17 games. The Dutch side enter as clear favorites despite their poor recent form, having failed to win in six consecutive matches across all competitions.
Feyenoord's struggles continued on Sunday when they suffered a painful 3-4 home defeat to Rotterdam rivals Sparta, extending their winless run into 2026. Before that, they drew 2-2 at Heerenveen on January 11. Van Persie's side also lost 3-4 to FCSB in the Europa League on December 11 and fell 2-0 to Ajax in the KNVB Cup on December 17. Their last victory came on December 6 when they thrashed PEC Zwolle 6-1. The injury crisis has deepened, with Gernot Trauner, Thomas Beelen, Jakub Moder, and Givairo Read among a lengthy list of absentees that could number up to 11 players.
Sturm Graz arrive in Rotterdam for their first competitive match in over a month following the Austrian winter break. They played two high-scoring friendlies in January, drawing 2-2 with Club Brugge on January 8 and 4-4 with Copenhagen on Wednesday. Before the break, their form had nosedived with three consecutive defeats in December: 3-1 to WSG Tirol, 1-0 to Crvena Zvezda in the Europa League, and 3-1 to Austria Wien on December 14. Their only December win came against Grazer AK with a 2-1 victory on December 7. Dimitri Lavalee and Leon Grgic remain sidelined with knee injuries for Ingolitsch's first competitive test.
"We want to take away their fun in football with our game," said Ingolitsch, acknowledging Sturm as the clear underdogs. "Intensity must be exactly what distinguishes us—if someone mentions Sturm Graz, they should immediately think brutally intense." Van Persie has faced internal pressure after publicly questioning Quinten Timber's work ethic in training, stating: "I made a promise to myself that I would always stay close to the purity of football. If I see that you do not have the intention to consistently carry out the tasks, then I make choices for players who do."
The teams have met four times previously, with Sturm holding a 2-1-1 edge. Their most recent encounters came in the 2022 Europa League group stage, where Feyenoord destroyed Sturm 6-0 in Rotterdam on September 15 before losing 1-0 in Graz on October 27. They also faced off in the 2000/01 Champions League third qualifying round, with Sturm advancing 3-2 on aggregate after a 2-1 home win and 1-1 away draw. The contrasting 6-0 and 1-0 scorelines from 2022 highlight both Feyenoord's dominance at home and Sturm's ability to grind out results when needed.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 31/50 (1.62 decimal) with a 62.77% win probability. I predict a 2-1 Feyenoord victory, supported by expected goals of 2.32 for the hosts and 1.16 for Sturm. Despite Feyenoord's defensive vulnerabilities and lengthy injury list, they've scored in nine of their last 10 home matches across all competitions, while Sturm found the net in both January friendlies and scored in five of their last seven Europa League fixtures. The xG gap suggests Feyenoord's attacking quality should prevail, but Sturm's recent goal-scoring habit makes both teams finding the net the most reliable outcome.
