Fiorentina come into this Serie A Femminile meeting with four games unbeaten, but that run includes only one win and two goalless draws, so their recent momentum is more steady than sharp. Juventus are harder to beat on paper, yet their last six league and European outings have brought six matches without a win and several low-scoring stalemates, which explains why the away side are not being priced as comfortably as their table position might suggest.
The cleanest argument for Juventus is that Fiorentina have not produced enough at the top end to turn home games into clear wins lately. Fiorentina’s last two league matches included a 0-0 with Parma and a 1-1 at Roma, while Juventus also finished level in their latest trip to Genoa, so there is some tension around a straight away-win call. Even so, Fiorentina’s home record is stronger than their overall standing, and Juventus have still conceded only 11 league goals all season, which keeps them in control of most away contests.
Head to head, Juventus have had the better of this fixture, winning three of the last five meetings and taking the most recent two cups ties 2-1 and 2-0. They have also scored first in eight of the last ten clashes, a useful sign for an away result because it often forces Fiorentina into chasing the game. Fiorentina have gone without a win in their last four league matches, while Juventus’ away league record of two wins, four draws and two losses shows a team that can travel without collapsing.
There is still a small caveat for an away win because Juventus’ away scoring numbers are modest, with only eight league goals on the road, and the xG projection of 0.7 for Fiorentina to 1.2 for Juventus points to a narrow margin rather than dominance. That fits the recent pattern between these sides, where Juventus have usually found just enough to edge it rather than run away with the game. Fiorentina’s home form is respectable, but Juventus’ stronger defensive record and better head-to-head edge are the main reasons to stay with the visitors.
My prediction is Away Win at 11/10. Juventus have won three of the last five meetings, including the two most recent cup games, and they have scored first in eight of the last ten head-to-heads. Fiorentina’s recent league return of one win in five, plus back-to-back draws in their latest home and away outings, leaves them short of the sharpness needed to stop a narrow away success. Juventus’ defence has allowed only 11 league goals, which gives them the edge in a tight match.
