FK Vardar Skopje come into this one with the best home record in the division, nine wins, two draws and only one defeat, plus 30 goals scored and just 11 conceded at home. That kind of balance suits a home win angle, especially against a visiting side whose away record reads one win, four draws and seven losses.
Makedonija Gjorce Petrov have struggled badly on the road, taking only seven points from 12 away matches and scoring just eight times while conceding 23. They have also lost three of their last four league games, so the away side’s current level leaves little room for optimism against the table leaders.
Vardar’s recent results are not flashy, but they are usually enough for this kind of bet: four wins, two draws and just one defeat in their last six across all competitions, with three of those league wins coming by a single goal. Their home games have been especially controlled, and the clean 1-0 win over AP Brera Strumica on 14 March fits the pattern of a side that knows how to close out matches at its own ground.
The head-to-head record also leans Vardar’s way, with four wins from the last five meetings and three straight home league wins over Makedonija Gjorce Petrov. There is a small note of caution from the 2-1 reverse fixture in December, and the 2-1 correct score idea looks more open than some of Vardar’s recent home numbers, but the overall edge still points clearly to the hosts.
My prediction is Home Win at 1/10. Vardar are unbeaten in most of their home league games, they have lost only once at home all season, and Makedonija’s away return of one win in 12 is poor. The visitors have also lost three of their last four league matches, while Vardar have already beaten them in the reverse fixture and have a strong recent home record in this matchup.
