Florgrade FC arrive with three wins, one draw and one loss from their last five league games, and the most recent defeat at Sport Comércio e Salgueiros was only their second loss in six. That is a decent base for a home favourite, especially with four of those six matches producing no more than two goals.
GD Resende’s recent away record is less convincing for a result at Florgrade. They did win 3-0 at SC Vila Real on 15 March, but that sits alongside a home draw with Leça FC and a 1-0 home loss to Rebordosa AC, while their away games before that were a 3-1 defeat at Aparecida FC and a goalless draw at AC Vila Meã.
The first meeting between these sides finished 1-1 in December, so Resende have already shown they can stay in the game, but Florgrade’s stronger first-to-score trend points the other way. Florgrade have opened the scoring in eight of their last nine, and that matters here because a lead would put pressure on a Resende side that has been fairly mixed away from home.
There is a slight tension with the projected 2-1 scoreline because Resende have enough recent goal threat to nick one, but Florgrade’s home edge still looks more important. Their xG projection is also in Florgrade’s favour at 1.4 to 0.8, which fits a narrow home win rather than a comfortable one. A low-to-mid scoring game suits them well.
My prediction is Home Win at 83/100. Florgrade have won three of their last five league matches, they have also scored first in eight of their last nine, and their xG edge is clear at 1.4 to 0.8. Resende’s recent away results are patchy enough that this looks like a spot where the home side should take control early and see it through.
