Hull City, fourth in the Championship with 54 points from 31 games, host Chelsea at the MKM Stadium for this FA Cup fourth-round tie. Chelsea sit fifth in the Premier League with 44 points from 26 matches. The Blues stand as heavy favorites in the Friday evening matchup. Victory here means progression to the fifth round for either side.
Hull City ended a five-game unbeaten run in the league with a 3-2 home defeat to Bristol City on February 7. Defensive lapses allowed the visitors to overturn an early lead, and a squirrel twice halted play by invading the pitch. Four days earlier, they drew 0-0 at home against Watford. Prior wins included a 1-0 away victory over Blackburn Rovers on January 31, a 2-1 home success versus Swansea City on January 24, and a 3-0 away triumph at Preston North End on January 20. That streak had pushed them into promotion contention before the recent setbacks.
Chelsea squandered a two-goal advantage to draw 2-2 at home with Leeds United on February 10. They dominated early but conceded twice in six minutes amid defensive mix-ups, and a late chance went begging. Three days before, they claimed a 3-1 away win over Wolverhampton Wanderers. A 1-0 loss away to Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi-final came on February 3. Earlier, they edged West Ham United 3-2 at home on January 31 and beat Napoli 3-2 away in the Champions League on January 28. Under manager Liam Rosenior, they had won four straight league games until the Leeds draw.
Chelsea dominate the head-to-head record against Hull City, unbeaten in 13 matches with 11 victories and two draws. Hull last beat Chelsea back in 1988. In FA Cup clashes, Chelsea won both recent ties, including a 2-1 result at this venue in 2020 and a 4-0 home thrashing in 2018. Overall, Chelsea have scored 29 goals to Hull's five across those encounters.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.91. Hull netted in four of their last five outings, while Chelsea found the net in each of theirs. Home advantage could help Hull breach Chelsea's backline, exposed in the Leeds collapse. Away form shows Chelsea scoring freely but conceding too. The xG projection (1.35–2.39) supports a 1-3 finish.
