Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring come in with a mixed recent run, but their games have tended to carry enough action for a 2.5 line. Four of their last six league matches have produced three goals or more, including a 2-1 win over Club NXT U23 and a 2-3 victory at Jong KRC Genk U23, while even the 1-1 draw at RWDM Brussels featured chances at both ends. At home, their season has been slightly more open than closed, with 18 goals scored and 20 conceded in 14 league matches.
Royal Francs Borains have been even more erratic, yet their recent scorelines also lean toward a higher total. Four of their last six league fixtures have reached at least three goals, and their 4-1 win over KV Kortrijk on 21 March showed they can turn a match into a stretch of repeated scoring. Away from home, though, they have been vulnerable, with only two away wins all season and 28 goals conceded in 14 trips.
The head-to-head record also offers some support for goals, even if it is not perfectly uniform. The reverse fixture in December finished 1-0 to Lierse, but the earlier meetings included 4-0 and 3-1 home wins for Lierse as well as a 2-0 away win for Francs Borains, so this pairing has regularly swung between tight and more open contests. With both sides sitting in the lower half and conceding more than they score across the season, a cagey 0-0 looks less likely than a match that opens up.
The xG projection points to a balanced contest at around 1.4 for each side, which sits comfortably with a three-goal outcome despite the 1-1 and 1-0 type scores still being possible. League home and away averages are modest, but both teams have shown enough recent defensive softness to keep the over in play. Lierse have also scored in five of their last six, while Francs Borains have found the net in four of their last six, which helps the case for a game that reaches three goals.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 17/20. Lierse have seen four of their last six league matches go above this line, Francs Borains have done the same in four of their last six, and the away side’s defence has shipped 28 goals in 14 league trips. The xG split of 1.4 to 1.4 also leaves room for a 2-1 or 1-2 type finish, even if the recent 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines show there is some tension around the pick.
