Nineteenth-placed Levante host third-placed Villarreal at the Ciutat de València on Wednesday evening in a fixture that pits two clubs 27 points apart in the LaLiga standings. Villarreal arrive as heavy favorites, sitting on 45 points with a 14-3-6 record compared to Levante's 18 points from just four wins all season. The stakes diverge sharply: one team is chasing Champions League qualification while the other battles relegation.
Levante's recent form paints a bleak picture under manager Luis Castro. They lost the Valencia derby 0-2 at home on Saturday, extending a winless run to three matches. Before that, Athletic Club hammered them 4-2 in Bilbao, and a goalless draw with Atlético Madrid remains their only point from the past month. Their sole victory in five came against fellow promoted side Elche on January 23, a 3-2 thriller settled by a 95th-minute header. The Granotes have won zero home league games this season, losing five of eight at the Ciutat de València, and have conceded 40 goals in 23 matches.
Villarreal under Marcelino García Toral have stumbled into rough waters recently despite their lofty position. A 2-1 defeat at relegation-threatened Getafe on Friday was their fourth loss in six games across all competitions. That run includes a 3-0 Champions League defeat at Bayer Leverkusen and a 2-0 loss at home to Real Madrid. Their 4-1 demolition of Espanyol on February 9 stands as their lone win in six outings. Still, the Yellow Submarine have 44 goals scored against 26 conceded, boasting one of the league's best goal differences at +18.
History favors Villarreal heavily in this fixture. In 35 meetings since 2005, they have won 22 times compared to just 9 for Levante, with 4 draws. The visitors have won 5 consecutive head-to-head encounters and remain unbeaten in this fixture since 2020. When these sides met in December at the Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal cruised to a 2-0 victory.
My prediction is Villarreal to win at 1.80 decimal odds. Despite their recent wobble, the 27-point gap in the standings reflects a genuine gulf in quality, and Levante's home record of zero wins this season offers little resistance. Villarreal have won 22 of 35 all-time meetings, and their superior goal difference of +18 versus Levante's -14 underscores the disparity. The xG projection (1.03–1.58) supports a 1-2 finish.
