The defending Premier League champions host Brighton at Anfield on Saturday evening in FA Cup fourth-round action. Arne Slot's Liverpool enter as clear favorites at 1.49 odds, sitting sixth in the league with 35 points from 26 matches, while Fabian Hürzeler's Brighton occupy 14th position with 31 points. This cup tie offers both sides a chance to build momentum, though Liverpool's pursuit of Champions League qualification makes every positive result critical.
Liverpool bounced back from their late loss to Manchester City with a crucial 1-0 victory at Sunderland on Tuesday, becoming the first team to win at the Stadium of Light in the league this season. That result snapped the Black Cats' 12-match unbeaten home run and moved the Reds within two points of the top four. Before that setback against City, Slot's side had thumped Newcastle 4-1 at Anfield and dismantled Qarabağ 6-0 in the Champions League. Their 3-2 defeat at Bournemouth on January 24 highlighted defensive vulnerabilities, but they remain a potent attacking force at home, averaging 1.98 goals per match at Anfield this season.
Brighton arrive on Merseyside mired in their worst run of the campaign, winless in six matches and having claimed just one victory from their last 13 Premier League outings. Their latest defeat came via an unfortunate 85th-minute own goal at Aston Villa on Tuesday, extending their winless streak to six. The Seagulls' last three points came on January 3 when they beat Burnley 2-0, and since then they have accumulated only two draws and four losses. Hürzeler faces mounting pressure as his young tenure reaches a critical juncture, with Brighton having conceded four own goals in the league this season alone.
Liverpool hold a commanding advantage in this fixture's history, winning 13 of 21 meetings between the sides while Brighton have managed just four victories. The Reds have scored at least two goals in eight of their last ten encounters, and over 2.5 goals have featured in their last eight matches against the Seagulls. Brighton's away record in this fixture is particularly grim, with only one win in their last 17 visits to Liverpool in all competitions.
My prediction is Liverpool Home Win at 1.49. The hosts' recent record of netting two or more goals in eight of ten head-to-head meetings aligns with their 54.56% probability of victory, while Brighton's six-match winless streak and lone win from 13 league games suggest they will struggle at fortress Anfield. The xG projection (2.08–1.30) supports a 2-1 finish.
