Maguary have been involved in lively games lately, with four of their last six finishing with at least three goals and both teams scoring in four of those six. Their most recent outing was a 4-3 defeat at Fortaleza, and the 1-1 draws with Retrô and Sport Recife also point to a side that can both score and concede. That kind of profile keeps them competitive, but it also means they are rarely shutting opponents out for long stretches.
ABC’s recent away work gives them a stronger case for the win than their overall record might suggest. They drew 1-1 at Ceará and went close enough in that match with 2.06 xG, while their last six include only one victory, back in July 2025, which is why the longer winless run still matters. Even so, they have found ways to stay in games on the road, and that is useful when the task is to edge a match rather than dominate it.
There is some tension in the numbers because Maguary have scored first in seven of their last eight, while ABC have gone ten matches without a clean sheet. That combination points to Maguary being able to ask questions early, but ABC’s own scoring in five of their last six and Maguary’s regular concession record keep the away side in the contest. With no finished head-to-head to lean on, the recent form lines are doing most of the work here.
ABC have also shown enough attacking threat to live with Maguary’s open games, even if their own results have not been stable. Maguary’s latest xG of 1.5 against Fortaleza, despite conceding four, shows they are not easily kept quiet, and ABC’s 16 shots at Sport Recife underline that they can create chances away from home. A 1-2 scoreline would fit those patterns, with ABC’s better chance to convert a tight game.
My prediction is Away Win at 13/10. ABC have gone ten matches without a clean sheet, which helps them stay in matches, and Maguary’s recent home-and-away results have included too many concessions to trust them here. The away side’s 1-1 at Ceará and their 2.1 xG against Sport Recife suggest enough attacking output to nick it, while Maguary’s tendency to score first does not fully remove the risk because they have still let leads slip in open games.
