Motherwell come into this one with the stronger home profile for a home win bet, taking 35 points from 16 league matches at their own ground and losing only once there. They have also kept things very tight at home, conceding just six league goals, which gives them a clear edge against a Falkirk side that has scored only 13 times in 15 away league games.
Falkirk’s away record is respectable rather than dominant, with six wins, two draws and seven losses, and their 13-20 goal difference on the road leaves little margin for error. Their recent league results also lean against them here: a home defeat to St. Mirren, a draw at Aberdeen, and before that losses to Heart of Midlothian and Dundee United. Motherwell, by contrast, have picked up a home draw with Hibernian and a home win over Dundee United in their last two league games at Fir Park.
The head-to-head does not remove all doubt, because Falkirk won the October meeting 2-1 and the December reverse fixture finished 0-0. Even so, Motherwell’s stronger home numbers are more convincing than that mixed history, especially with Falkirk failing to keep a clean sheet in six straight matches and Motherwell already showing they can control games at home without needing a high-scoring contest.
Motherwell’s league season is built on control at home: 10 wins, five draws and only one defeat, plus a home defensive record that is far better than Falkirk’s away attacking output. Falkirk have taken points on the road, but their recent league form and their limited goal return away from home leave them vulnerable if Motherwell reach anything close to their usual level.
My prediction is Motherwell win at 4/5. Motherwell have won 10 of their 16 home league matches, lost only once at Fir Park, and conceded just six goals there all season. Falkirk’s away scoring rate is modest, and their recent league run includes three defeats in their last five. The recent 0-0 between these sides is a small warning, but the home record still points to Motherwell edging it.
