Newell's Old Boys come into this cup tie with a mixed but useful home profile for a straight win bet: they beat Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1-0 in their most recent match at home, and that result followed a spell of three home defeats in four. The latest xG also points in the right direction, with Newell's creating 1.8 and allowing 0.9 on the projection, which is enough to favour them without implying a rout.
Acassuso arrive after a 3-0 home loss to Deportivo Morón, a game in which they managed only 0.14 xG and one shot on target. Their broader form is patchier away from home too, with a 1-0 loss at Club Atletico Colón and a 3-2 win at San Telmo in their last two road trips, so they have not looked especially reliable when stepping up for difficult fixtures.
The goal outlook does not scream a landslide, and that matters because a home win can still be a tight one. Newell's have had four of their last five matches finish under 2.5 goals, while Acassuso have failed to keep a clean sheet in three straight games. That combination leaves room for the visitors to nick something, but it also fits a narrow home success more than a high-scoring upset.
Newell's should also feel more comfortable controlling the key moments at home, where they have just beaten a league opponent and generated a decent shot volume against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, finishing with 16 attempts and five on target. Acassuso, by contrast, were heavily outplayed in their latest outing and have not backed up their better spells away from home with consistency.
My prediction is Home Win at 67/100. Newell's home win over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza showed they can grind out results at their own ground, Acassuso's 3-0 defeat to Deportivo Morón was a poor recent display, and their away form has already included a loss at Club Atletico Colón. The projected edge in chances, 1.8 xG to 0.9, also points toward Newell's having enough to finish on top, even if the expected scoreline is relatively close.
