OGC Nice host Go Ahead Eagles at the Allianz Riviera in a dead rubber Europa League fixture that carries little beyond pride. Nice, languishing in 36th place in the league phase table, have been mathematically eliminated from knockout contention. The Dutch visitors sit 28th with six points from six matches but arrive in better recent form. Claude Puel's return to Nice has failed to halt the slide, while Melvin Boel's side remain unbeaten in their last five across all competitions.
Nice's domestic freefall reached a new low on Saturday when they crashed 5-1 at Toulouse, extending a miserable run to just one win in their last nine matches. The defeat left them 15th in Ligue 1, perilously close to the relegation zone. Puel, rehired in late December to rescue his former club, has won none of his four matches in charge. The squad is threadbare due to Africa Cup of Nations absences and a lengthy injury list. Their Europa League campaign has been similarly disastrous, with six defeats from six including heavy losses to Porto (3-0) and Freiburg (3-1).
Go Ahead Eagles showed resilience on Friday when they fought back from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Ajax at the Johan Cruyff Arena. Thibo Baeten and Milan Smit grabbed the equalizers in a result that extended their unbeaten streak to five matches, though they haven't won since beating Feyenoord on November 9. Boel's team have drawn four of those five games, including a 2-2 stalemate with Fortuna Sittard on January 11 and a 1-1 result against Groningen on December 21. They sit 13th in the Eredivisie with 22 points from 19 matches. Their pressing game and quick ball circulation have proven effective domestically but left them vulnerable in Europe, where they fell 2-1 to Lyon on December 11.
My model backs both teams to score at 31/50 (1.62 decimal) with a 63.61% win probability. I predict a 2-1 Nice win with projected expected goals of 2.04 for the hosts and 1.27 for the visitors. Go Ahead Eagles have scored in their last five consecutive matches, while Nice have conceded in 14 straight across all competitions. The xG gap suggests Nice possess enough attacking quality to edge this encounter despite their defensive frailties.
