Quilmes arrive on the back of a three-goal away win over San Telmo and have now scored in three of their last five league games, so there is enough recent attacking output to keep the goals line in play. Their home meeting with Patronato produced three goals as well, which helps rather than hurts an over 1.5 read.
Deportivo Maipú, though, have been less reliable at the back, with four games without a win and a run that includes four defeats in their last six league matches. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in seven straight league outings, so Quilmes should find at least one opening if they repeat anything close to their recent level.
The away side’s recent matches have not been shutouts either: the 3-1 loss at Atlanta and the 2-2 draw at San Martín de Tucumán both cleared this line comfortably, while their 0-1 defeat to Godoy Cruz was the only one of the last three that stayed low. Quilmes’ own recent 3-0 result means the total can move quickly if either side gets a first goal.
The head-to-head record is mixed, but it has leaned toward manageable scoring, with six of the last eight meetings finishing under 2.5 goals. That does not block over 1.5 goals, though, and the projected 2-1 scoreline fits a match where Quilmes do enough at home and Maipú remain vulnerable on the road.
My prediction is Over 1.5 Goals at 67/100. Quilmes have just come off a 3-0 away win, Deportivo Maipú have conceded in seven straight league games, and Maipú’s recent away results have included a 3-1 defeat and a 2-2 draw. With both sides showing enough scoring in their recent samples, two goals feels the more likely threshold even if the match does not become a wide-open one.
