Roma host VfB Stuttgart at the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday evening, January 22, 2026, in a UEFA Europa League clash between two teams sitting fourth in their respective domestic leagues. Both sides have collected 33 points in Serie A and the Bundesliga, making this a genuinely balanced encounter with significant stakes for European progression.
Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma enter this fixture with momentum after beating Torino 2-0 on Sunday, a result that lifted them to fourth in Serie A. Goals from new signing Donyell Malen and Paulo Dybala secured the win, bouncing back from a disappointing Coppa Italia exit to the same opponents just days earlier. Roma's recent form shows three league wins from their last four matches, including victories over Sassuolo (2-0) and Lecce (2-0) in January, though a 1-0 defeat to Atalanta on January 3 reminded them of the fine margins at the top. However, injury concerns cloud their preparations, with Mario Hermoso potentially out for a month with a tendon issue sustained against Torino, while Artem Dovbyk faces an extended absence and Zeki Celik also picked up a thigh problem.
Stuttgart arrive in Rome with a mixed bag of recent results under Sebastian Hoeneß. Their most recent outing saw them held to a 1-1 draw at home by Union Berlin on Sunday, with Chris Führich scoring their only goal. Before that, they suffered a 3-2 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt on January 13, though Hoeneß described it as a "wake-up call" despite the loss. Their earlier January form was stronger, headlined by an impressive 4-0 demolition of Werder Bremen on December 14, though they also drew 0-0 with Hoffenheim on December 20. Denis Undav has been their standout performer with 10 Bundesliga goals this season, but Stuttgart face selection issues with Bilal El Khannouss suspended for this match and Angelo Stiller sidelined until mid-February with a thigh injury.
This marks the first competitive meeting between Roma and Stuttgart in the modern era. While direct precedent is absent, historical context suggests Roma hold an edge when facing German opposition, having won 20 of their 44 encounters against Bundesliga sides. Stuttgart, conversely, have struggled on Italian soil, securing just three victories from 15 matches against Serie A teams. The neutral head-to-head record means both teams will write the first chapter of this rivalry under the Roman floodlights.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 2/3 (1.67 decimal) with a 57.78% probability. The correct score prediction is Roma 2-1, with expected goals projecting Roma at 1.63 and Stuttgart at 1.21. Both teams have found the net regularly in recent domestic fixtures, with Stuttgart scoring in four of their last five games while Roma have netted in all but one of their past five outings. The 0.42 xG gap suggests a tight contest where Roma's home advantage could prove decisive, but Stuttgart's attacking threat makes a clean sheet unlikely for either side.
