Ross County come into this at home with only one win in their last six league matches, but their home record is sturdier than the overall table suggests. They have four home wins already, have drawn three, and have lost eight, so they are not easy to beat at this ground even when results have been uneven.
Airdrieonians have also been short of wins, with three matches without a victory since their 28 February success over Greenock Morton. Their away numbers are similar in shape to Ross County’s home split, with four wins, three draws and eight defeats, which points more toward a tight contest than a clear away edge.
The recent scoring patterns lean toward both sides having chances rather than either team controlling the game. Ross County have scored in their last two home league matches, while Airdrieonians have failed to score in two of their last three league outings. The head-to-head also gives a useful reminder for this market, with both teams scoring in five of the last six meetings and Airdrieonians keeping only one clean sheet in that sequence.
That said, there is a little tension around the clean-sheet angle because Ross County have gone three league games without one, and Airdrieonians’ xG in the 1-3 defeat at Raith Rovers was only 0.9. Even so, the match sits close on the numbers, with the xG projection at 1.2 to 1.1 and the overall home and away averages only slightly favouring a low-margin home advantage.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X at 18/100. Ross County are harder to beat at home than their league position implies, with only eight home defeats in 15. Airdrieonians have won just once in their last four league games and have not strung together a stronger away run. The head-to-head also helps, as Ross County have avoided defeat in two of the last three meetings, which suits the safety of the home-or-draw line.
