SC Heerenveen come into this one with four matches unbeaten and only one game without a win in their last six, while scoring in every one of those outings. Their recent run has included a 2-2 draw at NEC Nijmegen, a 3-0 home win over SC Telstar, and a 2-1 victory at Excelsior, so they are carrying enough attacking rhythm to trouble most sides.
Heracles Almelo’s form is far less convincing, with seven league games now passing without a win and only one point from their last three. They did score in the 1-1 draw with Excelsior, but the bigger picture is grim: four defeats in their last six and 19 goals conceded overall this season, with 41 shipped away from home already.
That points towards goals at both ends rather than a one-sided home win. Heerenveen have scored in all six of their most recent league matches and both teams have found the net in six of their last seven. Heracles, meanwhile, have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven straight meetings with Heerenveen, and the xG figures here lean to another open game rather than a tight cagey contest.
The home and away splits strengthen that view. Heerenveen have 27 goals scored and 22 conceded in 14 home league matches, while Heracles have just one away win all season and have allowed 41 goals on the road. Their head-to-head also leans the same way, with Heerenveen winning 3-0 in Almelo in December and only one of the last eight meetings finishing without both sides scoring.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 57/100. Heerenveen have scored in each of their last six league games, Heracles have found the net in recent matches despite their poor run, and both teams to score has landed in six of Heerenveen’s last seven. The away side’s defensive record is weak enough to invite chances, but Heerenveen’s own habit of conceding keeps this from looking like a clean-sheet spot.
