Tepatitlán FC come into this one with better league numbers and steadier recent form, sitting second with 22 points and only nine goals conceded across 12 matches. They have taken wins in three of their last six league games and are unbeaten in their last two, so the overall profile is still supportive of a home result rather than a slip-up.
At home, Tepatitlán’s scoring record has been strong enough to justify confidence in them doing enough again, while their recent 2-2 draw at Cancún FC showed they can still find answers even when the game opens up. Their 2-0 win over Venados and 4-0 win over Mineros de Zacatecas also point to a side that can control matches on its own patch, which is the key angle for a home win selection.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca arrive with a looser defensive profile, having conceded 24 goals in 11 league matches and gone winless in two. Their last six have included a 4-0 defeat at Club Atletico La Paz and a 6-2 loss at C.D. Irapuato, so the away side have not been reliable when facing stronger opposition. Even so, they have scored in enough games to keep the matchup from looking completely one-sided, which is worth noting against a straight home-win angle.
The head-to-head also leans Tepatitlán’s way, with no losses in their last three meetings against Alebrijes and a 4-0 home win in April 2025 among the most relevant examples. That said, the recent 1-1 draw in Oaxaca shows Alebrijes can occasionally hold them, so there is a little tension around a clean and simple home result. The stronger home numbers and Tepatitlán’s much tighter defensive record still point in one direction.
My prediction is Home Win at 17/20. Tepatitlán’s second-place standing, their six wins from 12 league games, and the fact they have conceded only nine times all support the home side. Alebrijes have lost more often than they have won, shipped 24 goals already, and have been exposed badly in two of their last three away matches.
