Tottenham host West Ham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026, with both London rivals desperate for points but for very different reasons. Spurs sit 14th on 27 points while the Hammers languish in 18th with just 14 points, deep in the relegation zone. Tottenham enter as clear favorites despite their own struggles under Thomas Frank, who has overseen only two wins in eleven league games. West Ham's woeful away record and ten-game winless streak that only ended with an FA Cup victory make this a must-win for Nuno Espírito Santo's side.
Tottenham's form has been erratic at best, with just one win in their last six home league matches. They lost 2-1 to Aston Villa in the FA Cup on Saturday, following a 3-2 defeat to Bournemouth on January 7 and a 1-1 draw with Sunderland on January 4. Their December run included a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on December 28 but also a 1-2 loss to Liverpool on December 20 and a 2-2 draw with Newcastle on December 2. Key injuries plague Frank's squad, with Richarlison out for seven weeks due to a hamstring problem, while James Maddison remains sidelined with an ACL injury. New signing Conor Gallagher could make his debut in midfield, and captain Cristian Romero returns from suspension.
West Ham's plight is far more desperate, having lost 2-1 to Nottingham Forest on January 6 and 3-0 to Wolves on January 3. Their only January win came against QPR in the FA Cup on Sunday, ending a dire ten-game winless run across all competitions. Before that, they lost 1-0 at home to Fulham on December 27 and drew 1-1 with Manchester United on December 4. The Hammers are five points from safety and hemorrhaging confidence. Konstantinos Mavropanos is out with a neck injury, while Lucas Paqueta remains doubtful with a back issue amid transfer speculation. New striker Taty Castellanos, who scored against QPR, offers fresh hope in attack.
Tottenham holds a dominant recent record in this fixture, having won 3-0 at the London Stadium on September 13, 2025, and 4-1 at home on October 19, 2024. The previous two meetings in 2024 and 2025 both ended 1-1.
My model backs Tottenham or Draw and Over 1.5 Goals at 2/5 (1.40 decimal) with a 58.31% win probability. The correct score prediction is Tottenham 2-1, with expected goals projected at 1.60 for Spurs and 1.03 for West Ham. Both sides have conceded freely this season, with Tottenham averaging 1.7 goals against per game in their last ten matches. The xG gap of 0.57 in Tottenham's favor reflects home advantage and superior quality, even amid their struggles.
