TSG Hoffenheim, sitting third in the Bundesliga with 42 points from 13 wins, three draws, and five losses, welcome seventh-placed SC Freiburg, who hold 30 points from eight wins, six draws, and seven losses, to the PreZero Arena in Sinsheim on Saturday afternoon, February 14, 2026. Hoffenheim enter as clear favorites after a strong season scoring 44 goals against 28 conceded, while Freiburg have netted 32 times but allowed 33. A victory would solidify Hoffenheim's push for Champions League spots amid tight competition at the top, as Freiburg aim to climb toward Europa League qualification with consistent mid-table results.
Under manager Christian Ilzer, Hoffenheim suffered a 5-1 defeat away to Bayern Munich on February 8, conceding three goals after a red card reduced them to 10 men in the 17th minute despite equalizing midway through the first half. Before that setback, they claimed a 3-1 home win over Union Berlin on January 31 and secured three straight away victories: 2-0 at Werder Bremen on January 27, 3-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt on January 24, and 1-0 at home against Bayer Leverkusen on January 17. These results highlight their scoring streak of at least one goal in each of the last five matches, totaling 11 goals across those games.
SC Freiburg, led by manager Julian Schuster, advanced to the DFB-Pokal semi-finals with a 5-4 penalty shootout win over Hertha BSC on February 10 after a 1-1 draw in extra time, following a goalless 90 minutes where they created late chances but needed spot-kicks to progress. In Bundesliga action, they earned a 1-0 home victory against Werder Bremen on February 7, but fell 1-0 away to Stuttgart on February 1. Earlier, a 1-0 loss at Lille in the UEFA Europa League on January 29 preceded a 2-1 home success over Koln on January 25. Freiburg have managed seven goals in these five outings while conceding three, showing resilience in tight contests.
Hoffenheim and Freiburg have clashed 35 times overall, with Freiburg claiming 15 victories, Hoffenheim securing seven, and 13 ending in draws. In recent Bundesliga encounters, Hoffenheim remain winless across their last eight meetings, suffering eight losses and four draws since their most recent triumph. The sides drew 1-1 in September 2025 at Freiburg, after Freiburg won 3-2 there in April 2025 and drew 1-1 at Hoffenheim in December 2024.
My prediction is a home win at 1.73. Hoffenheim's 13 league wins this season outpace Freiburg's eight, bolstered by four victories in their last five matches before the Bayern loss. Home form yields 28 points from 11 games with 45 goals scored across recent fixtures. Freiburg's seven away defeats contrast with Hoffenheim's five total losses. The 71.92% model probability aligns with Hoffenheim's 16-goal difference edge over Freiburg's minus one. The xG projection (2.32–0.73) supports a 2-1 finish.
