Asheville City SC arrive with a useful edge at home after beating Greenville Triumph SC 3-1 in the US Open Cup, following a 0-0 draw in the same tie. That leaves them unbeaten in their last two and, more importantly for a double chance angle, still without a loss in the sampled results provided.
One Knoxville SC have been steadier overall, with four wins in their last five and a 1-0 home victory over Richmond Kickers on 27 March. Their only defeat in the run came against Forward Madison FC, and they have also shown they can manage Cup ties away from home after winning 3-1 at SC Vistula Garfield.
The head-to-head record gives Asheville a reason to believe they can at least avoid defeat here. One Knoxville won the most recent meeting 2-0 in the 2024 US Open Cup, but Asheville did score in the two earlier meetings, including a 2-1 win in Knoxville, which fits the idea that this should be competitive rather than one-sided.
The projected 1-1 scoreline also sits neatly with the double chance pick, even if Asheville’s 1.9 expected goals is higher than One Knoxville’s 0.9. A home team averaging more goals and big chances than the away benchmark in this environment strengthens the case that Asheville can stay in the match, and the visitors’ recent winning run has not been built on dominant away data.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X at 73/100. Asheville are unbeaten in the two sampled Cup matches listed, One Knoxville’s run has included only one defeat in their last five, and the head-to-head has seen Asheville score in two of the three meetings. With the game projected close and Asheville’s home attacking numbers looking healthier than the away benchmark, the safer call is for the hosts to avoid defeat.
