Aston Villa welcome Brentford to Villa Park on Sunday afternoon, 1 February, with Unai Emery’s side third in the Premier League on 46 points, four behind leaders Arsenal and level with Manchester City. Keith Andrews’ Bees are seventh on 33 points and have already beaten Villa twice this season—1–0 in the league in August and on penalties in the Carabao Cup—so the hosts will be out for revenge and to stay in the title race.
Villa’s last five matches include a 2–0 win at Newcastle, with Emiliano Buendía and Ollie Watkins on the scoresheet, a 3–2 Europa League win over Salzburg, and league wins over Manchester United (2–1), West Ham (2–3 away) and Arsenal (2–1). Morgan Rogers has 12 goal involvements (seven goals, five assists) in the league and Buendía has five goals; Villa have scored 13 times from outside the box in the Premier League this season, more than any other side in Europe’s top five leagues. With Youri Tielemans, John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara absent, Amadou Onana and Lamara Bogarde are set to start in midfield and Jadon Sancho could feature on the right.
Brentford have lost four of their last five league games: 0–2 at home to Nottingham Forest on 25 January, 0–2 at Chelsea a week earlier, and earlier defeats to Tottenham and Arsenal by the same scoreline, with a 3–1 home win over Burnley the only victory in that run. Kristoffer Ajer and Mikkel Damsgaard picked up knocks against Forest but are not thought serious; Josh Dasilva remains out with a knee injury and Fábio Carvalho and Antoni Milambo are sidelined for the season. The Bees have faced the highest share of shots from outside the box in the division (37%) and have been awarded seven penalties in the league, the second-highest total in Europe’s top five leagues.
In head-to-head meetings Aston Villa have nine wins, seven draws and five defeats against Brentford (40 goals for, 26 against). The reverse fixture in August finished 1–0 to Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium; in the previous campaign Villa won 3–1 at home and 1–0 in London. Brentford’s two wins over Villa this season make the fixture a clear revenge opportunity for the hosts.
The model assigns a 62.34% probability to both teams scoring, above the implied chance at 1.67, and the attacking profile of both sides supports the angle. Villa create regularly from open play and from range, and Brentford both score and concede often enough for a share of goals to be likely on the day.
I'm backing Both Teams To Score at 1.67. Villa have scored in 19 of their 22 league games this season, while Brentford’s 1.36 xG projects enough chances for an away goal. The hosts have conceded in 10 of their 12 league games at Villa Park, and the Bees have found the net in 15 of their 22 league outings. The xG projection (1.73–1.36) supports a 2-1 finish.
